This is the updated
first part of the list that has recorded the notable events as the world deals with the COVID-19 pandemic. [2nd Part
] ― The LINKS to events and sources are placed throughout the timeline.
------------------------ The More Data We Collect and Analyze, the Clearer the Picture Becomes.
Someone threw a stone in a pond a long way away. And we're only just feeling the ripples. — Fukuhara from Giri/Haji, Netflix series
------------------------ On Jan 30,
Italian PM announced that Italy had blocked all flights to and from China. While Italy has banned people from air-travelling to China, however according to IATA data
, there's no measurement implemented for air-travellers from China into Italy till the Mar 07. Especially for Chinese people who have EU passports. On Jan 31,
the US announced the category-I
travel restrictions, barring all foreigners who have been in China for the past 14 days, with measures including the refusal of visas and mandatory quarantine.
• "Because the US focused on China and didn't expect the infected people's entry from Europe and the Middle East, the Maginot Line
was breached from behind. And so little of credible
data at the beginning made the US government to miscalculate its strategic response to the virus." — Dr. Zhang Lun
, currently a visiting scholar at Harvard (economics & sociology), during the interview
with ICPC on Mar 29. Also on Jan 31,
the WHO changed its tune and declared the coronavirus outbreak a Global Public Health Emergency
of international concern (PHEIC).
Decisions on a PHEIC always involve politics .... West African countries discouraged a declaration in 2014 after they were hit by the largest Ebola virus outbreak on record, mainly because of concern about the economic impact.
------------------------ On Feb 02,
regarding the US category-I travel restrictions, Kamala Harris, the former Democratic presidential candidate, declared
Since 2017, Trump’s travel bans have never been rooted in national security—they’re about discriminating against people of color. They are, without a doubt, rooted in anti-immigrant, white supremacist ideologies. This travel ban is no different. On Feb 03,
criticizing Trump for his travel restrictions continues. Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying (华春莹), a Peking University professors James Liang (梁建章), New York Times, the Nation, OBSERVER, the Boston Globe, Yahoo, and Daily Kos were saying,
it's a "panicky" decision and "racist" or it's "cruel and callous," he's stoking fear for political gains, and the president is "inappropriately overreacting." And professors Liang even said the US ban "will hurt goodwill and cooperation [with China] in the future." [1
] Also on Feb 03,
of the WHO said there's no need
for travel ban measure that "unnecessarily interfere with international travel and trade" trying to halt the spread of the virus.
China's delegate took the floor ... and denounced measures by "some countries" that have denied entry to people holding passports issued in Hubei province - at the centre of the outbreak - and to deny visas and cancel flights. Also on Feb 03,
China is expected to gradually implement a larger stimulus packages
(in total) than a USD $572 billion from 2008. — We'd never find out but my guess is that the fund will probably go to Shanghai clique. On Feb 04,
The FDA has given emergency
authorization to a new test kit by the CDC that promises to help public health labs meet a potential surge in cases.
The speed ... pushing through a new diagnostic test shows just how seriously they’re taking the potentially pandemic threat of 2019-nCoV. It’s also a sign that the world is starting to learn how to deal with an onslaught of new pathogens. Also on Feb 04,
the Wuhan Institute of Virology and China's Academy of Military Medical Sciences
(AMMS, Chief Chen Wei belongs to) have jointly applied to
patent the use of Remdesivir
. Scientists from both institutes said in a paper
published in Nature’s Cell Research that they found both Remdesivir and Chloroquine to be an effective way to inhibit the coronavirus. On Feb 06,
Jamestown Foundation, a Washington-based research & analysis unit, noted that with State Council of PRC praising his performance
of containing the pandemic situation, the council expanded
Li Keqiang's political control over Politburo Standing Committee of CCP. (Li Keqiang = Communist Youth League
= Shanghai clique) Also, on Feb 06,
as the US evacuation planes leave China, the wave of the US evacuees have arrived who are met by the CDC personnel at the quarantine sites
for screening, and those who were suspected of infection will be placed under quarantine for 14 days. Also, on Feb 06,
a CDC-developed lab test kit
to detect the new coronavirus began shipping to qualified US laboratories and international ones. — However, on Feb 12, the CDC said
some of the testing kits have flaws and do not work properly. The CDC finally ended up shipping the working test kits for mass testings on Feb 27. This was three weeks later than originally planned. On Feb 07,
China National Petroleum has recently declared
Force Majeure on gas imports. They are trying to create a breathing room for their foreign exchange reserves shortage. China's foreign exchange reserves fell
to mere USD $3.1 trillion in Oct. 2019. On the same day,
that PetroChina has directed employees in 20 countries to buy N95 face masks and send them home in China. The goal is to get 2 million masks shipped back. You can also find YouTube videos that show Overseas Chinese are scouring the masks at the Home Depot to ship them to China (the video
in Korean). Also Chris Smith
is pissed. On Feb 09,
his national emergency on its southern border, and Elizabeth Goitein from the Brennan Center for Justice, published an opinion
article on New York Times titled "Trump Has Abused This Power. And He Will Again if He’s Not Stopped." On Feb 10,
Dr. Tedros said
that an advance three-person team of the WHO arrived in Beijing for a joint mission to discuss with Chinese officials the agenda and questions. Then, the joint mission of about 10 international experts will soon follow, he said. — Those WHO experts ended up visiting
Chinese epicentre for the first time on Feb 24. On Feb 12,
the US targets
Russian oil company for helping Venezuela skirt sanctions. The US admin seemingly tried to secure leverage against Russia after noticing something suspicious was up. On the same day,
Reuters "I hope this outbreak or this event (for the US) may be over in something like April." — Dr. Zhong Nanshan
(钟南山), China's top tier SARS-hero doctor, also said
"the peak of the virus (for China) should come in mid to late February, followed by a plateau or decrease," adding that his forecast was based on on mathematical modelling and data from recent events and government action. On Feb 13,
Tom Frieden who is a former US CDC chief and currently the head of public health nonprofit Resolve to Save Lives, said
As countries are trying to develop their own control strategies, they are looking for evidence of whether the situation in China is getting worse or better. [But] We still don't have very basic information. [since the WHO just entered China] We hope that information will be coming out. On the same day,
the CDC reports that the 15th
case in the US was confirmed. The patient was a part of group who were under a federal quarantine order at the JBSA-Lackland base because of a recent trip to Hubei Province, China. By Feb 13,
accepted the US CDC's offer to send top experts, and they haven't released the "disaggregated
" data (specific figures broken out from the overall numbers) even though repeatedly been asked. On Feb 14,
CCP's United Front posted an article
on its official website, saying (Eng. text by Google Translation):
Fast! There is no time difference to raise urgently needed materials! Some Overseas Chinese have used their professions in the field of medicine in order to purchase relevant materials Hubei province in short of supply (to send them to China). .... Some Overseas Chinese took advantage of the connection resources, opened green transportation channels through our embassies and consulates abroad, and their related enterprises, and quickly sent large quantities of medical supplies (to China), making this love relay link and cooperation seamless. On Feb 18,
that 3M is on the list of firms eligible for China loans to ease coronavirus crisis.
There is no indication from the list that loans offered will necessarily be sought, or that such firms are in any financial need. The Bank of Shanghai told Reuters it will lend 5.5 billion yuan ($786 million) to 57 firms on its list. On Feb 21,
Xi Jinping writes a thank-you
letter to Bill Gates for his foundation’s support to China regarding COVID-19 outbreak. On Feb 24,
China was rumoured on Twitter to delay the phase one trade deal implementation indefinitely which includes the increase of China's purchasing American products & services by at least $200 billion over the next two years. Also on Feb 24,
S&P 500 Index started to drop. Opened with 3225.9 and closed 3128.2. By the Mar 23, it dropped to 2208.9. Also on Feb 24,
China's National Health Commission says the WHO experts have visited
Wuhan city for the first time, the locked-down central Chinese city at the epicentre, inspecting two hospitals and a makeshift one at a sports centre. On Feb 26,
IF the picture
that has been circulated on Twitter were real, then chief Chen Wei and her team have developed the first batch of COVID-19 vaccine within time frame of a month. On the same day,
the CDC's latest figures displays 59 people
in the US who have tested positive for COVID-19. Also on Feb 26,
the Washington Post published an article
.... the WHO said it has repeatedly asked Chinese officials for "disaggregated" data — meaning specific figures broken out from the overall numbers — that could shed light on hospital transmission and help assess the level of risk front-line workers face. "We received disaggregated information at intervals, though not details about health care workers," said Tarik Jasarevic of the WHO. — The comment, in an email on Feb 22 to the Post, was one of the first instances that the WHO had directly addressed shortcomings in China's reporting or handling of the coronavirus crisis. On Feb 27,
, the CDC says its test kit is ready
and the US started to expand testing. On Feb 28,
China transferred more than 80,000 Uighurs
to factories used by global brands such as Apple, Nike, & Volkswagen & among others. Also on Feb 28,
the WHO published the official report of the WHO-China joint mission on coronavirus disease 2019. (PDF) On Feb 29,
quoting Caixin media's investigation
published on the same day, Lianhe Zaobao, the largest Singapore-based Chinese-language newspaper, published an article
reporting the following:
Dr. Li Wenliang said in the interview with Caixin media; [in Dec 2019] another doctor (later turned out to be Dr. Ai Fen) examined and tried to treat a patient who exhibited SARS-like symptoms which akin to influenza resistant to conventional treatment methods. And "the family members who took care of her (the patient) that night also had a fever, and her other daughter also had a fever. This is obviously from person to person" Dr. Li said in the interview."
------------------------ On Mar 01,
China's State Council super tighten up their already draconian
internet law. On the same day, Princelings
published an propaganda called "A Battle Against Epidemic: China Combating COVID-19 in 2020" which compiles
numerous state media accounts on the heroic leadership
of Xi Jinping, the vital role of the Communist Party, and the superiority of the Chinese system in fighting the virus. Starting on Mar 03,
the US Fed has taken two significant measures
to provide monetary stimulus. It's going to be no use as if a group of people with serious means are manipulating the markets to make sure MM will have liquidity concerns when they need it most. On Mar 04,
Xinhua News, China's official state-run press agency posted an article
"Be bold: the world should thank China" which states that
If China retaliates against the US at this time, it will also announce strategic control over medical products, and ban exports of said products to the US. ... If China declares today that its drugs are for domestic use only, the US will fall into the hell of new coronavirus epidemic. On Mar 05,
Shanghai Index has recovered
the coronavirus loss
almost completely. On Mar 07,
Saudi's Ahmed bin Abdulaziz
and Muhammad bin Nayef were arrested on the claims of plotting to overthrow King Salman. — Ahmed bin Abdulaziz is known to have very tight investment-interest relationship
with Bill Gates, Bill Browder, Blackstone, & BlackRock: One common factor that connects these people is China. On Mar 08,
the Russia–Saudi oil price war has begun.
The ostensible reason was simple: China, the biggest importer of oil from Saudi and Russia, was turning back tankers
while claiming that the outbreak forced its economy to a standstill. On Mar 10,
the Washington Post published the article
saying that the trade group for manufacturers of personal protective equipment urged in 2009 "immediate action" to restock the national stockpile including N95 masks, but it hasn't been replenished since. On Mar 11,
the gentleman at the WHO declares
the coronavirus outbreak a "Global Pandemic." He called on governments to change the course of the outbreak by taking "urgent and aggressive action." This was a full twelve days after the organization published the official report regarding the situation in China. On Mar 13,
the US admin declared
a National Emergency and announced the plan to release $50 billion in federal resources amid COVID-19. Also on Mar 13,
China's Ministry of Commerce states
that China is now the best region for global investment hedging. On Mar 15,
Business Insider reports
that Trump tried to poach German scientists working on a coronavirus vaccine and offered cash so it would be exclusive to the US. The problem is the official CureVac (the German company) twitter account, on Mar 16, 2020, tweeted the following
To make it clear again on coronavirus: CureVac has not received from the US government or related entities an offer before, during and since the Task Force meeting in the White House on March 2. CureVac rejects all allegations from press. On Mar 16,
the fan club of European globalists has published
a piece titled, "China and Coronavirus: From Home-Made Disaster to Global Mega-Opportunity." The piece says:
The Chinese method is the only method that has proved successful [in fighting the virus], is a message spread online in China by influencers, including many essentially promoting propaganda. ... it is certainly a message that seems to be resonating with opinion leaders around the world. On the same day,
unlike China that had one
epicentre, Wuhan city, the US now overtakes
China with most cases reporting multiple epicentres simultaneously
. Also on Mar 16,
the US stocks ended sharply lower
with the Dow posting its worst point drop in history. But some showed a faint hint of uncertain hope
. On Mar 17
, according to an article on Chinese version of Quora, Zhihu
, chief Chen Wei and her team with CanSino
Biologics officially initiated a Phase-1 clinical trial for COVID-19 vaccine at the Wuhan lab, Hubei China, which Bloomberg News confirmed
. — Click HERE
, then set its time period as 1 year, and see when the graph has started to move up. Also on Mar 17,
China's state media, China Global TV Network (CGTN
), has produced YouTube videos
for Middle Eastern audiences to spread the opinion that the US has engineered COVID-19 events. Also on Mar 17,
Al Jazeera reported
that the US President has been criticized for repeatedly referring to the coronavirus as the "Chinese Virus" as critics saying Trump is "fueling bigotry."
• China's Xinhua News tweeted
"Racism is not the right tool to cover your own incompetence."
• Tucker Carlson asked
: "Why would America's media take China's side amid coronavirus pandemic?"
• Also, Mr. Bill Gates
: "We should not call this the Chinese virus." On Mar 19,
for the first time, China reports
zero local infections. Also on Mar 19,
Al Jazeera published an analysis
report, titled "Coronavirus erodes Trump's re-election prospects." On Mar 22,
that China's mobile carriers lost 21 million users during this pandemic event. It's said to be the first net decline since starting to report monthly data in 2000. On Mar 26,
that China cashes in off coronavirus, selling Spain $466 million in supplies. However, Spain returns 9,000 "quick result" test kits to China, because they were deemed substandard. — Especially the sensibility of the test was around 30 percent, when it should be higher than 80 percent.
------------------------ On Apr 03,
Germany and other governments are bolstering corporate defenses
to address worries that coronavirus-weakened companies could be easy prey for bargain hunting by China's state owned businesses. On Apr 05,
New York Times says
"Trump Again Promotes Use of Unproven Anti-Malaria Drug (hydroxychloroquine)." On Apr 06,
a Democratic State Rep. Karen Whitsett from Detroit credits hydroxychloroquine
and President Trump for "saving her in her battle with the coronavirus." On Apr 07,
the US CDC removed
the following part from its website.
Although optimal dosing and duration of hydroxychloroquine for treatment of COVID-19 are unknown, some U.S. clinicians have reported anecdotally different hydroxychloroquine dosing such as: 400mg BID on day one, then daily for 5 days; 400 mg BID on day one, then 200mg BID for 4 days; 600 mg BID on day one, then 400mg daily on days 2-5.
☞ If there were ever a time for people not to be partisan and tribal, the time has come: We need to be ever vigilant and attentive to all kinds of disinformation & misinformation to see it better as well as to be sharp in our lives. — We really do need to come together.
☞ At first, I was going to draw up a conspiracy theory-oriented list focused on Team-Z
, especially Mr. Gates. However, although it's nothing new tbh, recently many chats and discussions seem overflowing with disinformation & misinformation which is, in my opinion, particularly painful at a time like this. Hence, this post became a vanilla list that's just recorded the notable events. — We all are subject to misinformation, miscalculation, and misjudgment. But the clearer the picture becomes the better we can identify Funkspiel.
☞ Immediate Aftermath pt.2.a
☞ Feasible Timeline of the Operation
☞ Go Back to the Short Story
Hey! I’m a full time currency and cryptocurrency trader, I need to point out a few major fallacies and misconceptions I frequently see in this community and others.
First up. If it’s your first year trading expect to fail. Actually, if there was a contract I could buy that’d pay me out if you ended up liquidating your account in the next 12 months, I’d literally bet on your failure. You need to immediately reduce your trading account to 1/10th of its original size for your first year of trading. Seriously, do it. You are betting that you can outperform billions of dollars of institutional order flow, typically with basic patterns or default setting indicators with no experience. Which brings me to my next point.
Your strategy is not your identity, stop treating what you use to trade as dogma. That indicator or pattern you’re using, can you tell me why it works? Not HOW to use it, but what fundamental paradigm it uses to accurately predict future price action. There are legitimate answers, but trying to use your indicators/patterns without understanding why is like driving across the country without knowing how to open or what’s inside the hood or your car. Sure, you’re going to get pretty far, but eventually it’ll break down and you won’t have a clue what to do, stranded and starving in the middle of the desert.
Chances are, while you were reading this you came up with one of three answers in your head as to why your indicatopattern works. Let me guess. “Everyone else uses it, it’s made me money so far, it’s natures law (for you Fibonacci folks,) or it’s a proven standard.” All of those are appeal to authority fallacies. For instance....
How does a compass work? Are the answers “well everybody else uses compasses” or “compasses are a proven standard” WHY a compass works? If you don’t know how a compass works and you’re lost, you aren’t going to know what variables will stop the compass from working. You might be in the Southern Hemisphere, that’d lead you in the exact opposite direction, but you wouldn’t know it because you DON’T KNOW WHY it works. Then die of starvation shortly after because you didn’t understand a tool paramount to your survival and couldn’t find your way back to civilization. If you’re lost in the ocean of institutional investors, AT LEAST understand why your tools work.
For instance, why does divergence work? You probably know that divergence represents a reversal.
Divergence doesn’t form because of “price” or “its losing momentum,” divergence forms because an oscillator defines a data set that expands and contracts based on the activity in the period lookback you define for it. When you have an expanding data set, it requires increasingly drastic moves to register the same “extreme” values. If you have a tight data set and you have a huge outlier, the data set widens to compensate with every candle close. So now that you have a wider data set, an equal move would register as a less extreme event as defined by the oscillator. That’s why divergence forms/works.
Seriously, it’s worth learning these things. Unless you can explain why something works like I just did with divergence you shouldn’t EVER use it in your arsenal. Then if you do take the time to learn the “why,” you’ll start realizing that a lot of the commonly accepted tools are fundamentally broken. For instance, with your new understanding of divergence, think about overbought or oversold signals. Why would a new outlier of a data set imply a return to the center of the data set if the data set is in an active state of expansion, CAUSED by the outlier?
Now if you’re relying on an appeal to authority fallacy for understanding, could it be that the authority that presented the information doesn’t have your best interest at heart? Breakout patterns for example. If you have a bull flag, and you’re betting on bullish trend continuation, I’ll take a wild guess about where you put your stop loss. Oh, below the bull flag? Large players know this and will scoop up your stops before pushing price up. How often have you said, “wow, I was right but I stopped out just before trend continuation!” The “golden standard” of technical analysis is only so to make the masses of retail traders a predictable herd of cattle.
Also, stay away from entirely subjective strategies that will always appear correct in hindsight. Oh, how many times have you redrawn that Elliot wave extension to match what happened instead of what you predicted? Don’t you dare bring up the Fibonacci to justify your subjective drawings either. Fibonacci doesn’t work because “it’s natures law” or the “golden rule,” it just happens to be very similar to the first standard deviation of any price move. So why are you using a static reading to predict a dynamic value that changes with every candle close?
For TA that actually works (if you use it correctly,) I can recommend ichimoku, though only on macro timeframes and requires a lot of reading to use properly.
Mark Whistler’s books on volatility are my biggest recommendation to learn. Any strategy using WAVE PM and 3D WAVE PM are ideal, treating price strictly as reactionary, multiperiod probability distributions gives an excellent “why” in the chaos of the markets. The compression and expansion cycles can be defined to the exact period on any timeframe with the right readings. I created a write up a while back going in depth on my findings on probability distributions here. https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/ah5bxo/lets_talk_about_the_basics_of_advanced_volatility/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app
I also created a google doc over the years and filled it with a few resources I’ve used to learn, I can hand it out if you dm me.
Finally, don’t forget to do your FA. Macro level economic indications are incredibly important for defining the long term alignment of expectations. However never trade the news, this is an important distinction. Don’t bet that the US dollar will go down because Trump made a stupid tweet, please. What you SHOULD do is measure the strength of the move and the EXPANSION caused by the FA and identify where the compression begins afterwards. For every period of expansion, there is a predictable compressionary range that follows that is equal to the expansion. For every action there’s an equal and opposite reaction. Instead of betting on the news, bet on the reaction after the news has cooled off.
That’s all that immediately comes to mind. Feel free to ask any questions.
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